It might surprise some people, but two of my favourite websites are gogwatch.com and glasnost.org.uk, and I would thoroughly recommend them to anyone. One read through their bizarre cocktail of anti-Welsh prejudice, insults, delusion, misinformation and unbridled fantasy should be enough to persuade any normal person that a Welsh-medium education will be good for their children.
The main contributor to these sites wants to convey the impression that Welsh-medium schools do not have better examination results than other schools, and is particularly fond of quoting statistics which are supposed to back this up ... although usually without providing any links to the sources of his information. I have a rule on this blog that anyone who leaves a comment is free to express any opinion they wish; but if they want to quote statistics to support the point they are making, they need to provide links to them so that readers can see if what they are saying is true.
My favourite poster has fallen foul of this many times before, yet couldn't resist doing it again in response to this post from last week. After one false start, he surprised me by eventually providing one link which was presumably meant to support his claim that WM schools do not produce better examination results. This is what he said:
Chicken, Michael, you know very well that my figures are correct....what you don't like is that they show YOU to be misleading your acolytes. See no statistics: post that!
http://wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/headlines/schools2011/111130/?lang=en
Key stage 4 Benchmarking information.
Get it? 88% of pupils in WM schools under 15% FSMs
41% of pupils in EM schools under 15%.
So let's look at the documents on the page he linked to and see if what he claims is true or not. The key information is in tables 9 and 10 on page 3 of this spreadsheet. To make things easier I have highlighted the better results in green and the worse results in pink in this image from it, click to enlarge:
Six different ways of measuring examination performance at the end of Key Stage 4 are shown in these tables. In simple terms, this is what they mean:
Level 1 Threshold ... five GCSE passes at any grade
Level 2 Threshold ... five good GCSE passes at A*-C grade
Level 2 Threshold including English or Welsh First Language and maths ... self explanatory
Core Subject Indicator ... Level 2 Threshold including English or Welsh First Language, maths and a science subject
Average Wider Points Score ... an overall measure that includes all qualifications gained, including grades
Average Capped Wider Points Score ... as above, but limited to the best eight qualifications
The official definitions are more complicated because they include equivalents and discounting, but everything is explained here.
In overall terms, Welsh speaking schools (the table is based on the 1996 definition, which is wider than the current definition of Welsh medium schools) achieve very much better results than other schools, as we can see in the right hand columns. However schools with fewer students receiving free school meals always tend to do better in academic terms than schools which have more students receiving them, so in order to make a like-for-like comparison the results have been benchmarked against FSM entitlement in 5% and 10% bands.
As we can see, Welsh speaking schools in the 10-15% and 15-20% bands do better than other schools in those bands. It is only in the least deprived schools, those with fewer than 10% receiving FSMs, that English speaking schools tend to do better; but even in this band the picture is varied. As a generalization, it's probably fair to say that English speaking schools in this band do better on the narrower range of core subjects (English, maths and science) but that Welsh speaking schools do better across a wider range of subjects.
-
If we are forced to give a simple Yes/No answer to the question of whether Welsh speaking schools do better when FSM entitlement is taken into account then the best, if not the only, way to do it would be to exclude all the schools with over 20% on FSMs because there are currently no Welsh speaking schools in those bands. We can then work out the relevant percentages because the tables show the numbers of students in the schools in each band, although the calculation may not be precise because the percentages in the original tables are rounded.
Level 1 Threshold ... Welsh 96% ... English 95%
Level 2 Threshold ... Welsh 76% ... English 74%
Level 2 Threshold including English/Welsh & maths ... Welsh 60% ... English 57%
Core Subject Indicator ... Welsh 58% ... English 56%
Average Wider Points Score ... Welsh 493 ... English 441
Average Capped Wider Points Score ... Welsh 338 ... English 330
So the answer to this question is an unequivocal Yes. Under all six measures Welsh speaking schools do get better examination results than English speaking schools, even when FSM entitlement is taken into account.
-
Although it's nice that Welsh speaking schools produce better results than their English speaking equivalents, I would only want to repeat what I said in the earlier post on primary education.
These differences in performance are marginal. The more important difference is that in WM schools children are taught Welsh to first language standard, but in other schools they are generally taught only to second language standard. However in both WM and EM schools, English is always taught to first language standard. Therefore the main advantage of WM education is that children become competent in both English and Welsh, rather than just in English.
It is not impossible for children to become competent in Welsh if they go to an EM school, but it is less likely. For all practical purposes, WM education is the best way of ensuring that your child is fully bilingual in Welsh and English.
124 comments:
Thank you for the clarity. And for putting G&G in their place. They are an embarrasment.
........that should have been embarrassment!
It certainly isn't impossibe to go to an English medium school & speak Welsh. My better half went to Landsdowne Junior & Fittzalan in Canton, Cardiff.
The only English I've spoken to her in the 34 years I've known her was when the kids were young & monolingual & we didn't want them to understand what we were talking about.
Although to be fair I suspect that you're correct in general terms.
OK, I'd probably overstated it, Cai. So I've reworded that sentence.
To clarify, I did mean speak Welsh when they leave school. It's never too late to learn later, although it probably won't come as easily as it would for those who learn as a child.
To attempt to put some very rough percentages against learning to speak Welsh at school, the numbers I referred to in this post suggest that just over half the students in secondary schools can speak Welsh ... at least as defined by their parents, who may not always be in the best position to judge. As the percentage will be lower in earlier years than in later years (for learning a language is a process), we could maybe say that 55-60% speak Welsh by the time they leave.
As about 20% of students are in WM education, it leaves 80% in other schools; so just under half those in non-WM schools will leave being able to speak Welsh. But only about a third of those who can speak Welsh will speak it fluently, and I think it's safe to say that the vast majority of those will be the ones in WM schools.
Just to back up menaiblog, my missus went to Aberdare Girls Comp then went on to do Celtic at Aber. She's teaching Welsh Second Language in Gwent at the moment (a generally thankless task) but she's sent about two dozen kids off to university to study Welsh, several of whom have returned as Welsh teachers themselves. So it can be done.
Glasnost is run by an anonymous bigot from Chester, Gogwatch is a racist and anti-minority site. Glasnost actually also hates the English-speaking Welsh, and makes no secret of it, whereas Gogwatch claims to represent them.
Nasty bunch.
Gogwatch is more methodical and ignorant, but isn't Glasnost more hilarious? The usage of the Stalinist Wa;es insinuation is a sure sign of a crank, and the "WELSH GOVERNMENT's "DEMOCRACY" EXPORTED to AFGHANISTAN!" is simply classic.
"all you need to do is to swap names and use Rhodri Morgan / Carwyn Jones for Karzai and the Welsh Language Board / Welsh Language Commissioner for Afghanistan’s Clerics, then this analogy becomes obvious for anyone who is aware what happened in Wales over the last ten years."
Well, duh!
Glasnost is hilarious. Even the contact number on their website is based in Chester. I remember watching a debate before the last devolution referendum and an Irish friend found it funny that the majority of people on the 'No' side were English.
Before the mewnlifiad, some of the strongest anti-Welsh language sentiment came from of the south-east Wales' dinosaur left... but at least they were unambiguously Welsh. The modern anti-Welsh movement is something quite different, set up by middle-aged English people in northern/western parts of Wales who have little in common with ordinary people in the valleys.
Thank you for the expert evidence based demolition of Glasnost's and Gogwatch's arguments. Just need to demolish the argument you need to speak Welsh to get a job in Wales now. Its not hard in Wrexcsam where only about half a dozen non-teaching jobs out of 5,500 jobs are Welsh essential posts
As I'm a professor of mathematics who speaks fluent Welsh but has decided not to pass the stupid and useless language on to my children I can say that MH's so-called "statistics" are complete fantasy. The real figures in fact show that English education is in virtually all cases superior to Welsh education, and especially even more so when the full psychological and emotional damage of speaking Welsh is taken into account.
Gogwatch moved to Wales, found out that people here are different in some ways, and hates them for it.
"I'm a professor of mathematics"
So lets see a response the above analysis, which involves more than name-calling. In what way are the figures wrong?
@Anon 11:35
You have children? My god.
Please don't use language like that, Anon 12:10. You can say it just as well without swearing.
"As I'm a professor of mathematics who speaks fluent Welsh....."
Something tells me at least one of those statements of fact is a lie, and probably both. I very much doubt you're what you claim to be poster.
Sorry MH, I was blimmin' angry!
Anon 11.35
Os wyt ti'n medru'r Gymraeg, profa fe!
Ie, dere 'mlaen Dic Sion Dafydd...
'Professor of mathematics" - hilarious, these fantasy-land bigots lie through their teeth.
No-one with a moderate education in any language would post such an obviously semi-literate rant.
I know some professors of maths, and they'd actually discuss the issue in a balanced way , provide evidence, and write in a measured way.
desperate stuff by the bigots.
Looks like some successful trolling from Anon 11:35 to me. :D
Anon: 11:35, sy ma, Mae'r Cymraeg yn ruddy warthus, just delio da fe, mae Cymraeg yn iaith sydd di Mawr
Profeswr yr Mathamateg, Ysgol Yr Oasis
No problem, Anon 12:10/13:47. I agree with everything you said apart from the way you phrased the last sentence.
On the matter of trolling, I think we shouldn't get too worked up about it. Sites like Gogwatch and Glasnost exist to wind people up, just as the 11:35 comment was designed to do. But I think they serve those of us who want to see Welsh prosper far more than they serve their intended purpose, for they show just how riduculous any opposition to Welsh is. That's why I highlighted them and want people to visit them.
MH, as you say: with enemies like these, who needs friends?
I have never read gog watch before - it is hilarious....
Thanks for the tip.
Penddu
psychological damage of speaking welsh?? oh dear..
Look at this, your thoughts?
I come from Pembrokeshire – the Welsh language doesn’t belong here
I come from Pembrokeshire – the Welsh language doesn’t belong here
Pembrokeshire Voice | February 16, 2012 | 404 Comments I come from Pembrokeshire, south of the Landsker line. My ancestors for nearly a thousand years haven’t spoken Welsh. I don’t consider myself English – but I speak English; we still have a few words of the old Pembrokeshire – English dialect left, words such as: kift and caffled.
The huge financial and political ‘investment’ to try and resuscitate the Welsh language over the last 30-40 years has inevitably brought social engineering with it. Such attempts appear most kift and caffled in this part of West Wales where Welsh died out so long ago. A tiny example being place names.
Since the mid 60s when bilingual signs were first allowed, the Welsh Language Board and the Place-name Research Centre at the University of Wales, Bangor. (I kid you not!) have turned toponymy into a self-serving industry.
Let me return to Pembrokeshire. Since the 11th century in South Pembs place names have rarely been influenced by Welsh. Consider a relatively new town, such as Milford Haven – there has never been a historical Welsh equivalent. Yet that has seemingly not stopped the Welsh language toponymists: how Milford Haven can in any way be mistaken for the manufactured Welsh version Aberdaugleddau (Welsh from local river estuary Daugleddau (i.e. the two rivers Cleddau) beats me.
Please respect traditional place names: whether English or Welsh: Aberystwyth will always be called by its Welsh name, Milford by its English.
I would argue that the vast majority of Pembrokeshire folk don’t want the Welsh language thrust upon them:
- they only watch S4C for the rugby – and use the English subtitles or commentary (if available)
- they only greet you in Welsh in work if directed to do so
- and they try to avoid wasting time on Welsh translation they know nobody will read; only to be overruled.
For some parts of Wales the Welsh language is important. To some of us from Pembrokeshire NOT having the Welsh language is becoming as important – PLEASE RESPECT OUR HERITAGE
I respect your heritage. But it is painfully obvious that you do not respect mine.
Anon 19:55 - upon what grounds do you make that sweeping allegation? WH himself is not a native Welsh speaker, so you could say his heritage is the same as yours, but could you write so eloquently, or indeed analyse statistics so effectively? I doubt it.
Sionnyn
My apologies for the misunderstanding, my comment should have started with reference to Anon 19:31!
Anon 11:35 - I do not believe you are a mathematician of any sort - your language betrays you as an uninformed bigot. I might be wrong, In which case you will receive an abject apology, but you must back up your credentials. So tell us, What branch of mathematics do you specialise in, and where, and what exactly, do you profess?
At a guess, judging from your idiom, I would say that you are the editor and sole conrtibutor to Glasnost. Am I right?
Their are lots of different anonymous people I am confused
Anon 20:29 - sorry - but you know how it is, those of us for whom the language is important to look out for the trolls, and nip them in the bud.
ah the old pembrokeshire never spoke welsh chestnut...
as frequently used by english incomers and a few anti-welsh welsh, most of whom don;t even come from pembrokeshire anyway.
hating another culture and language doesn't amount to a heritage, my friend. Hating Welsh is your core value, it's very sad indeed.
I onestly ask you, today did you speak Wlesh, it is utterly pointless, it is dead, dead, dead. They do not speak it in Monmouth or Wrexham,
so their we go. It lives no more
Anon 20:58. Is your father a mathematics professor by any chance?
Anon 20:58 - What do you know about Wrecsam?, I live my day to day life in this town and there is not a day goes by that a substantial part of it is not conducted through the medium o Welsh, and I am not alone!
Anon 20:58, Rydw I'n defnyddio'r Cymraeg a 'dw i'n treulio hanner fy amser yn Wrecsam.
In other words, I speak Welsh and spend half my time in Wrexham. In fact, there are more opportunities to use the language around the town now than there has been for a long time, with developments such as the opening of Saith Seren by the guildhall, a Welsh language pub and music venue (it's worth a trip there just to sample their fantastic Selsig Morgannwg!). It is plain that any comment like your own is born of ignorance; Welsh is very much a viable, vibrant language. I have concerns about its future (particularly its vulnerability in the heartlands), but to say it is "utterly pointless" or "dead, dead, dead" is a simple fallacy and quite derogatory to boot.
'Profeswr mathamateg' - yur Welsh - as your English - is faulty to the point of being useless. Rubbish in fact. (It should have been Athro MathEmateg).
The only oasis school I can find is a Christian Academy in Oldham - Professors in the UK are appointed by universities, not private, or quasi private schools. I believe you are a fraud, and quite possibly the same fraud that maintains Glasnost, as he too has delusions of grandeur, and a sense of his own importance that reality does not support.
You've been rumbled, pal, now get back in your kennel.
20:58 - I live in Swansea, amd married to a woman who doesn't speak Welsh, but I spoke Welsh at length today, as I do most days. I don't understand your antipathy to something you have no experience of?
Mae hwn yn warthus, mae Saith Seren ddim yn lle ble mae pawb yn siarad Cymraeg, faint oaelodau mae efo? you know 300 neu rhywbeth? gofyn unrhyw yn y stryd yn Wrecsam a bu ddim o nhw'n siarad Cymraeg
Sionnyn gweld ti'n fy rhoi fi lawr am siarad iaith Cymraeg, dwin trio gorau fi, ond oherwydd mae ddim yn perfeth,
Typical Welsh Language Fanatical berates everyone that does not speak Welsh perfectly
"Typical Welsh Language Fanatical berates everyone that does not speak Welsh perfectly"
what bollocks, i learned a small amount of welsh and everywhere Ive tried to use it Ive been treated with goodwill and respect. a shit lot more respect than english speakers give to those struggling with English.
most anti-welsh Ive come across are fearful bigoted tossers. simples.
Anon 17:07. Ysgol yr Oasis = SOAS???
Peidiwch a rhoi geiriau yn fy nheg, anon 22:25, os gwelwch yn dda. Wnes i ddim ddweud fod pawb sy'n defnyddio Saith Seren yn siarad Cymraeg; does gen i ddim gamargraff am hynny - mae fy Nhad yn ddefnyddio'r lle yn fwy aml na fi a nad oes ganddo air o Gymraeg. 'Gyd wnes i ddweud yw fod yna nawr siawns ychwanegol i defnyddio'r Cymraeg yn gymdeithasol yn y dref.
Celwydd syml yw ddweud fod neb yn Wrecsam yn siarad Gymraeg. Dwi 'di byw yn yr ardal mwy neu lai trwy gydol fy oes: mae 'na Cymry Cymraeg ymhlith fy nheulu, fy ffindiau, hen gymdogion...mae fy Aelod Seneddol hyd yn oed yn siarad Gymraeg. Mae hyn i gyd yn gael ei gefnogi gan cyfrifiad 2001 (http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=3852), sydd wedi dangos fod 15% o phobl Wrecsam yn cysidro eu hunain yn siaradwyr Cymraeg.
Please don't put words in my mouth, anon 22:25. I did not say that everyone who uses Saith Seren speaks Welsh; I have no illusions about that - my father gets more use out of the place than me and he doesn't speak a word of Welsh. All I said is that there is now a further opportunity to use Welsh socially in the town.
It is simply a lie to say that no-one in Wrexham speaks Welsh. I've lived in the area more or less all my life: there are Welsh speakers among my family, my friends, old neighbors ... even my AM speaks Welsh. All this is supported by the 2001 census (http://www.statswales.wales.gov.uk/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=3852), which has shown that 15% of Wrexham people consider themselves Welsh speakers.
And yes, before your inevitable riposte, the census cannot give us much of an idea as to the fluency of those 15%, but I can attest personally that there are fluent Welsh speakers in Wrexham. I know a fair number of 'em!
I go to the Saith Seren 4 days a week and I speak Welsh in ordering food or drink. When we opened the Saith Seren we created jobs...more than Gogwatch and Glasnost ever did... Welsh speaking jobs cos its a Welsh pub!
I can give a statistical pointer to how many people in Wrecsam can speak Welsh fluently, Rhys. Table 24 of the Language Use Surveys 2004-2006 gives a breakdown of those who said they could speak Welsh in the 2001 census by local authority. For Wrecsam the figures were:
Fluently ... 37.8%
Considerable amount ... 34.8%
Only a little ... 21.8%.
Only a few words ... 5.6%
37.8% of the 14.43% who speak Welsh is 5.45%. But I'm sure the percentage will have risen since then.
The Pembrokeshire thing is a quote from Gogwatch I believe, and is very revealing. No real arguments about the official status of Welsh, just the essence of pure, distilled bigotry.
Ar nodyn fwy syfrdanol MH,
ti'n mynd i wneud blog amdan Keith Davies a fydd na by-election yn Llanelli?
Yes, Lyndon you're right - it, or something very similar and similarly phrased, was also on the True Wales website. It's part of a package: hate welsh, hate bilingualism, hate *the* Welsh, hate Wales, hate devolution. You'll see the operative word is 'hate'.
sheer relentless negativity and deceit.
professor Anon - Dechreuaist gan ddweud dy fod yn siarad cymraeg yn Rhugl, ac mae'r ychydig Gymraeg 'rwyt wedi ei ddefnuddio yma mor wallus fod hi'n amheus iawn dy fod yn dweud y gwir. Pe pae ti wedi dweud dy fod yn ddysgwr, fe fyddwn i, fel pob Gymro Gymraeg aall, wedi bod yn fwy maddeuol tuag atat.
Professor Anon - you started by saying you speak Welsh fluently, but the little Welsh you have used here is so incorrect that it casts doubt (and that's being generous) on the truth of that assertion. Had you said you were a learner, I, and every other fluent Welsh speaker, would have treated your mistakes with more understanding. You are a fraud, misrepresenting both your language status and your title.
Be mae cymraeg i ddim yn berfeth, dwi'n deall hwna, dwi'n flin sionnyn dwi methu siarad e cystal a ti, ond gyda i gyd o'r athrawon cymraeg dwi wedi cwrdd maent yn cherthin tu ol cefn fi,
Its a non-starter, Sionnyn, you have ridiculed me and every person from Monmouthsire to Abergavenny, just because I cannot speak the mutations,
Di yn siarad Cymraeg yn rhugl pa dystiolaeth dych chi am fi rhoi i chi, llyfr, erthygl dwi wedi ysgrifennu?
Sad and pathetic the Wales-dwelling Welsh-haters are, it's also encouraging to know that the reason for their ugly propaganda and spite is the wholesale shift in attitudes towards Welsh identity and language that has occurred in the recent decades and continues today. It's a case of 'If you can't beat them, join them', but they'd rather 'cut off their noses to spite their faces'. Their loss.
Could the "Professor " be using google translate when posting in Cymraeg. It could explain the lack of mutations.
It's not a google translation and it 's more than just a lack of mutations. The prof, we can confidently say, is not a fluent writer of Welsh. Having said that, I'm more concerned about his geography. 'From Monmouthshire to Abergavenny'!! Abergavenny is in Monmouthshire!
The prof is too clever by half. His style is definitely that of a prolific gogwatcher we know.
Ma hwn yn warthus, gwelwch fan hyn nawr, dwin dysgu mathamateg yn Ysgol arbennig,
Rydych chi gyd yn mwlio fi just oherwydd dwi'n siarad Cymraeg gwallus, edrych tu mewn eich galonnau, sdim bau fi dwi ddim efo cysgeir!
Wel o ddim, Sir Fynwy I Abergefenni, O Casnewydd i Sir Fynwy, wel dwi'n sori fy mod fy ddaereyddiath ddim mor dda a rhai chi,
Mae hwn yn warthus, pobl Gymraeg yn troi yn erbyn Prydeinew, jyst oherwydd dwi ddim yn gefnogi y iaith ma sydd yn MARW
Anonymous Professor,
Fydd yr iaith Gymraeg BYTH farw tra bod yna unigolion yn ei defnyddio hi, yn union fel yr wyt ti'n ei wneud. Felly, dal ati wasi, ac mi fydd dy afael ar yr iaith yn siwr o wella!
Hwyl...
They've turned agaist you because of your first post:
1. Ignorance and bigotry
"decided not to pass the stupid and useless language on to my children"
2. Lying
"MH's so-called "statistics" are complete fantasy. The real figures in fact show that English education is in virtually all cases superior to Welsh education"
3. Projecting (blaming others for self failure)
"when the full psychological and emotional damage of speaking Welsh is taken into account"
"when the full psychological and emotional damage of speaking Welsh is taken into account"
I nearly fell off the floor laughing when I read this. Tell me mr "professor", given your logic this must also apply to all non-monoglot English speakers does it? If this is the best you can offer in terms of "argument" then it is no surprise that you are the source of much ridicule...
I have no idea why so many of those commenting above are getting worked up about the Professor's rantings. You will never win an argument with a madman. Ignore him and he will, eventually, go away.
Thanks for the stats, MH.
No problem, Rhys. I'd downloaded it ages ago, but finding a link to it was the hard part now that BYIG is no more.
Leave the prof alone, you're wasting your breath on a vindictive little prat. Let him troll off to his Gogwatch den, and let's get back to debating with facts.
El proffo
Now for a post which won't be published....because Michael doesn't like the truth out there. What I'll do is keep figures out of it so that MH has no excuse to fail to post what I am saying. I will however point to how you can check that what I am saying is true.
Firstly the benchmarking figures favour WM schools in the 15% to 20% range. You can look at the Free school meals, three year averages by going to statswales, folders, examinations and assessments, Key stage 4 and selecting the school level analysis. Here you will see that the highest FSM entitlement for a Welsh school is Cymer Rhondda but there are several EM schools with higher FSM entitlement so that if you do the sums you find that within the 15%-20% band the actual average FSM entitlement is higher in the EM schools....ie we are not comparing like with like. For this reason I rejigged the tables to 3% point intervals which end on 18% to give a level playing field.
Although MH likes to appear "fair" I notice he highlights the "all school average" which of course favours WM schools which all have less than 18% FSM entitlement. The WLB has done this for years to mislead parents.
Now to look at the other measures:-
Core subject indicator....to see just how unequal this is think of a WM school where all 100 pupils get A*-C in maths and the same result in Science but half their number get A*-C in English GCSE and a different half get A*-C in Welsh first language....The school gets 100% at the CSI analysis.
A similar EM school scores 50% at CSI.
The same advantage (either or Welsh/English) applies in the Level2 inc Eng/Welsh and Maths.
When like with like is actually applied then the figures are quite different.
Don't be taken in by the EDITOR who can't allow free discussion on his site.
When MH plays GOD by censoring comments consider this: how do you know when he takes pieces out of context that he is behaving with scrupulous honesty? For instance he starts this piece with Quotes from me but doesn't mention that the link that I provided was used in discussion about relative deprivation levels in WM and EM schools. Anyway now that he has linked to the Benchmarked statistics you can all see my point 88% of WM secondary school pupils are in schools with below 15% of pupils on FSMs. 41% of Em schools are in the similar range. You can see the effect of deprivation on academic achievement here:http://wales.gov.uk/topics/statistics/headlines/schools2012/120315/?lang=en
MH - Check out this Straight Statistics article
http://www.straightstatistics.org/article/welsh-parents-wooed-questionable-propaganda
No marks for guessing who Straight Statistics source is!
"Now for a post which won't be published....because Michael doesn't like the truth out there. "
Looks to me like MH has published your post. I must say the welsh-hateing trolls get a much fairer hearing, despite the bleating about censorship, than they're prepared to give others.
Anon 0723/0749
MH was good enough to provide the source table which we can read for ourselves. His commentary appears perfectly fair and reasonable.
Your point that if we drill down into the 15-20 per cent benchmark we will find all WM schools in a 15-17.5 per cent range is well made. But (and this is an important but) WM schools in this band make up only some 12 per cent of total WM schools. So even if you in some way corrected the bias in this band, the overall impact would be relatively small.
Your point about CSI etc is again fair comment but if you distrust these you can look at the wider points score.
MH's aggregation is a very good idea in that it gives you a condensed measure based on nearly 7,000 WM students. The results look pretty clear to me.
Gogwatchers in general and your good self in particular are obsessed with finding some weakness in WM education outcomes. In so doing you take us all up these infernal cul- de-sacs. There are huge education issues in Wales. By far the most important is the need to improve under-performing schools whether they are EM or WM. Your continuing focus on EM v WM wastes our time. We should all be supporting both EM and WM.
One final point, the petulant and excitable tone of your posts suggests someone who knows only too well that he is losing the argument.
There's no reason for me to delete your post, Anon, because you've provided, if not quite a link, then enough information for others to navigate to it. We can see that the three year average for Cwmer Rhondda is 18%. To know whether this is the highest or not, we would need to see a table, so where is that table?
You then say:
"... there are several EM schools with higher FSM entitlement so that if you do the sums you find that within the 15%-20% band the actual average FSM entitlement is higher in the EM schools....ie we are not comparing like with like. For this reason I rejigged the tables to 3% point intervals which end on 18% to give a level playing field."
I agree that there are likely to be some EM schools with an FSM entitlement of between 18% and 20% (a two point span). But there are likely to be more with a FSM entitlement of between 15% and 18% (a three point span), so it is unclear to me how you come to the conclusion that "within the 15%-20% band the actual average FSM entitlement is higher in the EM schools". You imply that you have "done the sums", so please show us those sums. Email them to me and I will put them up on the server I use for everyone to access.
You then come up with the statement that you rejigged the tables to 3% point intervals. I'm prepared to give you the benefit of any doubt. Let's see these tables you have rejigged.
But take a step backwards to see the bigger picture. You are asking us to believe that the tables you have "rejigged" are more accurate than the information actually publish by the Welsh Government to UK Statistics Authority Standards.
-
You then make a point about the way the CSI is calculated. I'd like to see you substantiate that point. But even if it were true, what is wrong with it? Are you claiming that an A*-C GCSE pass in Welsh First Language should count for any less than a pass at the same grade in English? If that doesn't satisfy your idea of "equality" then the alternatives are either to count neither English or Welsh FL in the CSI, or to count both English and Welsh FL. On the second basis the CSI percentage of EM schools probably wouldn't even reach double figures ... and I have to say that this would be an accurate reflection of the fact that EM schools (with a few exceptions) do not teach Welsh to the same standard as WM schools teach English.
-
As for your second comment, it was perfectly clear that the context was relative deprivation levels in WM and EM schools. No-one is doubting that 88% of Welsh speaking secondary school students at KS4 are in schools with below 15% of pupils on FSMs compared with 41% in English speaking ones. The question is whether this changes the overall picture. As the published tables show, taking FSM entitlement into account narrows the gap, but Welsh speaking schools still outperform English speaking ones.
I read the Straight Statistics article yesterday and left a comment, PG.
I've looked again today and it hasn't yet been published. But I'll give them a little more time.
Another new anonymous here. Look you are all very welcome to tell me I dont understand the Welsh language culture of the heartlands til the cows come home! However, I know South Pembrokeshire... it has been mine and my ancestors home for many generations. Do not assume that people who say "Welsh is not relevant in South Pembrokeshire" are English. Just because our accents probably sound more Cornish than Welsh to you 'true' and 'righteous' Welsh speaking Welsh does not mean we are English.
I want to respect Welsh speaking culture I really do but pro Welsh speaking organisations show no respect to south Pembrokeshire and it's culture and our unique language (ok so it's more of a dialect). To the Welsh speaking Welsh we in 'little England beyond Wales' are treated as a dirty little secret to be ashamed of! and believe me they are doing everything they can to wipe our unique culture of the face of the earth and assimilate us with Ceredigion. Why should I show such people respect?
I don't speak Welsh and I don;t speak South Pembrokeshire English, but I do know anti-Welsh bigotry when I see it.
How on earth is what I said 'anti-welsh bigotry'? This website appears to be full of hypocrites! You want respect for your culture but you are not prepared to give it back
As luck would have it, there is an article in the Tenby Observer today about the growing demand for WM education in south Pembrokeshire.
This should help put things into perspective.
South Pembrokeshire,
I for one respect the feelings that you and other folk in that part of Wales have for their particular English speech. No problem. Nurture it, protect it, cherish it. I'm all for such local tradition and culture.
However, Welsh is a National language of Wales. It is the birthright of all Welsh people, regardless of which part of Wales they were born in, or live in. Welsh education policies are simply aimed at ensuring that henceforth all have a real opportunity at becoming competently and comfortably bilingual in both English and Welsh.
So for South Pembrokeshire read bilingual in South Pembrokeshire English and Welsh, and that, I would hope, Pembrokeshire Welsh. The best of both worlds.
MH,
I was talking specifically about Pembrokeshire's history not it's future! It's history is primarily English, not Welsh speaking and nobody, not even you, could argue with that. A very recent slight increase in interest of Welsh medium education is to be expected... after all the amount of interest has never really been surveyed since Carmarthen (which has more Welsh speakers than any county) became commutable due to better roads. It's not surprising that some now living in the area might like WM for their children. Heck I should know, I've got friends who moved here from Whitland and Carmarthen who send their kids to Preseli WM secondary. Which incidentally is North of the Landsker line and they do not complain about that as they have a respect for where they now live.
I welcome an element of WM education and it may well be a big part of South Pembrokeshire's future. However, many here have shown a distinct lack of respect and understanding of the history and old communities of South Pembrokeshire... which as I said in my first post (and was somewhat attacked for) had nothing to do with the Welsh language. Now for better or worse that is an undisputed fact - you cant change history just because you are ashamed of us.
I've not make any comment about Pembrokeshire's history, Anon, and I haven't attacked anything that you've written about it.
I suppose I could have deleted your comment for irrelevance, but I've let you express your opinion. The rest of us are free to make up our own minds about whether to take what you say seriously and whether it's worth responding to.
South Pembrokeshire,
"It's history is primarily English, not Welsh speaking and nobody, not even you, could argue with that."
So English was already spoken in this Mid South West corner of Britain before the arrival of Germanic Anglo-Saxon settlers to the South East of Britain after Rome withdrew?
Remarkable.....It was nothing to do with the influence of later Anglo-Norman/Anglo-Flemish settlers after all!
Or perhaps your definition of 'history' doesn't start until the later arrival of Anglophones in the Middle Ages? Ah, now I get you.
This is silly their is no demand, Pembrokeshire and every council in Wales is controlled by Ultra Nationalists who speak Welsh the CEO in pembrokeshire and every council speaks Welsh
It's always amusing to see that the fiercest defenders of the English language seem to have only marginal literacy in their beloved tongue.
lol Neilyn! I said 'primarily' didn't I? Why am I not surprised that somebody would try and debate the undebatable. I am aware that world existed pre-norman times but you will find little more than anecdotal evidence to base your argument on.
MH... I know you havent made a comment on the history MH - that's why I specifically said 'future'. As in, you said 'growing demand' which to me equals future. If only you weren't so arrogant and patronising in the way you write.
I can understand why people from South Pembs would wish to preserve their traditions including their traditional dialect/accent. But quite frankly, it is ludicrous to suggest that the Welsh language is a threat to these. The South Pembs accent and dialect are undoubtedly in decline - but the reasons for that decline are the same as the reasons why the Welsh language is under pressure in its heartlands - and for that matter the same as the reasons why many regional accents in England are in the process of disappearing. Namely, large scale and unrelenting population shifts and the homogenising influence of popular culture. The reason why the young people of South Pembs no longer speak in the local dialect has nothing to do with the teaching of Welsh in schools - and everything to do with the television they watch, the music they listen to, and the fact that many of them have no long standing familial ties to South Pembs.
This site has all the classic Welsh language activist-speak.
Demand absolute evidence on everything - then either ignore it or ridicule it.
Change the agenda then argue the point on their own agenda.
Hurl abuse at anyone who disagrees with them.
Sure, Gogwatch has some extreme views - from both sides!
Can you not understand that the main thrust of Gogwatch comes not from people who hate the Welsh language but from those who LOVE Wales and are alarmed at the damage ever more desperate language policies are doing Wales.
As for an independent Wales - be careful what you wish for. Cut the umbilical to the mothership and we will be in real trouble.
It looks like you're not prepared to give us the tables you claim to have "rejigged" or the "sums" you claim to have done, Anon.
But thank you for providing us with evidence of how much you "LOVE Wales", instead.
Thank you for your sarcastic reply.
I rest my case
Goodbye.
You don't have a case to rest, Anon. You didn't present any of the evidence you claimed to have.
But don't say goodbye. You'll be back soon enough.
LOVE Wales?
Mmmm.......
The English/British have always LOVED Wales, LOVED Ireland, LOVED America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and today in increasing numbers seem to LOVE France, LOVE Spain, LOVE Italy etc etc etc, and anywhere else they can get their hands on.
However, when in comes to the thorny question of how to 'interact' with those that already live there, well, that's where the LOVE seems to DRY UP.
The evidence speaks for itself.
Oh dear, that was some pitiful trolling by Anon :'I rest my case'.
What case is that? No figures,facts, references, just some whinge about being 'abused'.
As for 'goodbye' , surely you mean 'au revoir'? You are after all always trolling the blogs attacking Welsh.
"Can you not understand that the main thrust of Gogwatch comes not from people who hate the Welsh language but from those who LOVE Wales and are alarmed at the damage ever more desperate language policies are doing Wales."
Er...no.
Well, if Gogwatch is so irrelevant, only representative of a tiny minority, why bother to read it? Why bother to get all frothy mouthed about it?
Au contraire, mon ami. We hold Gogwatch in the highest regard. You need only refer to the opening sentence on this page where the esteemed site is deemed one of our favourites. This is then followed by a most wholesome recommendation. We so look forward to an honourable reciprocation.
Anon - we read Gogwatch because it is funny. I suspect that a large proportion of the people who visit it do so for the same reason. The extreme views expressed in it, and the pompous tone defies parody.
HJA! I see Professor Anon has responded to me by using my real name, - only one other person does that, a troll called llew99 on Wales Online. He pops up under various guises - often simultaneously - to spew forth his hate filled bile. He has also claimed to be from South Pembrokeshire, as have a number of other posters on WOL who are enemies of the language.
LLew back - your Welsh is not even Welsh, let alone perfect - and you began your tirade on this thread by telling us it was fluent.
I believe that in this particular Annon we have the original progenitor of Gogwatch AND Glasnost! Honour indeed!
Lew dwi dim yn lew, sionnyn dwin cgymro, sydd dim yn hoffir iaith cymraeg, dyna gyd,
to all those non-welsh speakers, the above means sionnyn is dangerous, and supports to the wesh language radically
"the above means sionnyn is dangerous, and supports to the wesh language radically"
bloody hell, the only danger I see here is to the English language, which you seem only partly proficient in.
Lenny the Lion
"Well, if Gogwatch is so irrelevant, only representative of a tiny minority, why bother to read it? Why bother to get all frothy mouthed about it?"
same reason we get frothy-mouthed about the BNP: they may be small and unrepresentative, but they are very nasty.
I read Gogwatch and Glasnost when I want a good giggle! They are absurd, and with every new article, they damage the case they claim to espouse even further. You could not satirises them, it would be superfluous.
Ah I've read some of your comment on the 27Th Now. So I think that I can say this without being deleted: If you can get to the school level plasc statistics then you can check all other single year and three year running average Free school meal percentages...Yes? You are postulating that I have fiddled something by re-jigging the figures to 3% point intervals. It is, however, the statistical directorate who have provided a table that misleads by using 5% point intervals. The first 7 schools are Welsh Medium the rest English Medium and underneath I have averaged the FSM entitlement across WM and EM schools separately so that you can see that they are equal.
Ysgol Dyffryn Ogwen Bethesda 15.26
Ysgol Uwchradd Bodedern 15.36
Ysgol Gyfun Rhydywaun 16.03
Ysgol Gyfun Gymraeg Llangynwyd 16.05
Ysgol Uwchradd Aberteifi 16.06
Ysgol Dyffryn Aman 16.88
Ysgol Gyfun Cymer Rhondda 17.47
Ysgol Aberconwy 15.08
Newbridge School 15.24
Cardinal Newman R.C. 15.27
West Monmouth School 15.39
Ysgol Maesydderwen 15.46
Penyrheol Comprehensive School 15.56
Llantarnam School 15.7
Tasker-Milward V.C. School 16.04
Cefn Saeson Comprehensive School 16.24
Cwmtawe Community School 16.27
Ysgol Gyfun Emlyn 16.3
YSGOL BRO GWAUN 16.32
Newtown High School 16.4
Flint High School 16.9
Prestatyn High School 16.99
Ysgol John Bright 17.09
St Joseph's RC School and 6th Form Centre 17.09
Brynmawr Foundation School 17.13
St John Lloyd Catholic Comp School 17.36
WM average 16.15
EM average 16.20
And here we have the usual MH con trick where he baffles his acolytes with pseudo statistics:
"If we are forced to give a simple Yes/No answer to the question of whether Welsh speaking schools do better when FSM entitlement is taken into account then the best, if not the only, way to do it would be to exclude all the schools with over 20% on FSMs because there are currently no Welsh speaking schools in those bands. We can then work out the relevant percentages because the tables show the numbers of students in the schools in each band, although the calculation may not be precise because the percentages in the original tables are rounded.
Level 1 Threshold ... Welsh 96% ... English 95%
Level 2 Threshold ... Welsh 76% ... English 74%
Level 2 Threshold including English/Welsh & maths ... Welsh 60% ... English 57%
Core Subject Indicator ... Welsh 58% ... English 56%
Average Wider Points Score ... Welsh 493 ... English 441
Average Capped Wider Points Score ... Welsh 338 ... English 330
So the answer to this question is an unequivocal Yes. Under all six measures Welsh speaking schools do get better examination results than English speaking schools, even when FSM entitlement is taken into account."
The whole point of breaking the school performance scores down into Free school meal benchmark categories is to compare like with like....on average. Once you re-amalgamate all the schools into a broad category you destroy the whole benchmarking system.
So in this case MH is no longer looking at benchmarked comparisons because, as I pointed out, WM schools are almost all in the two high performing categories.... under 15%.
Less than 10% FSMs EM 31% WM 46%
10%-15% FSMs EM 39% WM 42%
15%-20% FSMs EM 30% WM 12%
Thus MH can (triumphantly) declare WM the winner by a nose. But it's as bent as a dog's hind leg!!
Anon, I've deleted your first comment because, although I have received some spreadsheets, they do not show what you claim. If there are any that do, please send them to me.
But in answer to your point, I would refer you back to what I said in my comment of 10:16 on 27 April. Of course pupils who take both Welsh FL and English have the advantage that either of them counts towards the relevant thresholds. Exactly the same is true of pupils who take two science subjects; either of them will count towards the CSI. There's nothing unfair about either. Pupils that take more subjects have more chances ... and in life in general, people who speak both Welsh and English will always have an advantage over those who can speak only one of them. That's a basic fact of life that annoys the hell out of you.
-
I haven't deleted the second and fourth comments because they will show others the way your mind works.
This post was based on the evidence which you yourself eventually provided a link to on a previous thread. The information in the spreadsheet downloadable from that page was perfectly clear, and showed that Welsh speaking schools generally get better results than their counterparts even when free school meal entitlement is taken into account.
But having been shown to be wrong about what you claimed, you then claim that the official figures are "misleading" and present a new set of figures that you have "rejigged". The spreadsheets I have been sent are quite worthless because they do not show how you did your calculations. They are just figures in cells with no explanation of how they were calculated. They might be accurate, they might not. But why on earth should anyone take your word for it ... especially because what you are relying on now is different from what you were relying on only a few days ago?
In all the years I've dealt with you, it has always been your maths that lets you down. You find figures, but have almost no understanding of what those figures mean, can't do the relatively simple calculations to put those figures into context, and therefore reach wrong conclusions. You can call my calculation "bent as a dog's hind leg" but everyone else will be able to check what I did and see for themselves that my figures are accurate, and based on the published information that you linked to.
Shall I take you through it slowly? The overall percentage for the comparable FSM bands (i.e. those in which there are both Welsh speaking and other schools) is, for the Level 1 Threshold on Welsh speaking schools:
0.97 x 3,152 pupils + 0.95 x 2,853 pupils + 0.93 x 801 pupils
= 3,057.44 + 2,709.40 + 744.93
= 6511.77
Then divide this by the total number of pupils in the bands
3,152 + 2,853 + 801 = 6,806
6511.77 / 6,806 = 95.68 (or 96% in round figures)
Now repeat this for each of the other indicators and for both types of school.
It's a simple and easy calculation. Now, if you want anyone to believe your "rejigged" figures, you will need show us your calculations. Obviously that will involve showing us the indicators for each individual school, together with the numbers of pupils in each school taking GCSEs in that year. First you need to provide sources for the raw information, then you need to put that together in a spreadsheet to do the calculations, then you need to either put that spreadsheet online or send it to me.
It's up to you. Put up or shut up.
-
I've deleted the third comment because of the last part of it (you can repost the first part), for exactly the same reason as I deleted the first. None of the spreadsheets I've been sent shows what you claim.
The spread sheets that you have been sent are from the statistical directorate and nowhere else....feel free to just email them back and confirm that. Now publish.
Your analogy above is a false one and I suspect that you know it;
"Of course pupils who take both Welsh FL and English have the advantage that either of them counts towards the relevant thresholds. Exactly the same is true of pupils who take two science subjects; either of them will count towards the CSI. There's nothing unfair about either. Pupils that take more subjects have more chances "
Pupils in both Welsh medium schools and English Medium schools have equal chance to score in science or even take science. The only subject where this doesn't apply is Welsh First language where the subject is taken by a few in EM schools who are Welsh First Language speakers and almost all others are in WM schools where the schools then choose the highest score across 4 subjects for each pupil to enter into their statistics.
You can only compare like with like. Welsh medium secondary schools are dependent on their pupils having gone through Welsh Medium Primary schools in order to study Welsh First Language.
As for your calculation, it's simple, any single figure you come up with based on saying that WM schools have the same Socioeconomic profile (if taken together) as all EM schools (if taken together) between 0-20% Free school meals benchmarked categories is wrong.
So what are you afraid of...publish the data sets now that you have them.
Yet another twist, Anon. You now claim that the spreadsheets I was sent are from the Statistical Directorate and nowhere else, but you can't have it both ways. Up to now, you have been claiming that the official figures are misleading and that you have "rejigged" them to give what you claim is a truer picture. If they are your "rejigged" figures, it's your information, not theirs. That doesn't necessarily make what you say you have done invalid, but you need to explain how you did your calculations.
The rest of what you say is silly. You make basic errors because you don't understand what the figures mean. To take an example, I'd ask people to look at your 20:09 comment. At the bottom of your list you have averages for both EM and WM. But what you have done is added the percentages and divided them by the number of schools. That's a mathematical joke.
It will be obvious to everyone else, but I evidently need to explain it to you: Take three schools, two schools on 9% FSM and one on 18% FSM. According to you the average FSM entitlement would be 12% (9 + 9 + 18 = 36; 36 / 3 = 12). But you need to take the size of the school into account for your calculation to have any validity. If the two schools on 9% have 450 and 550 pupils respectively and the one on 18% has 2,000 pupils, then the average FSM entitlement is actually 15% rather than 12% (450 + 550 = 1000; 9% of 1,000 = 90; 18% of 2,000 = 360; 90 + 360 = 450; 450 / 3000 = 15%).
-
But finally, I would say yet again that the differences in performance when FSM entitlement is taken into account are marginal. If non-Welsh speaking schools close the performance gap, it is something I would welcome, for any improvement in education standards is to be welcomed. If they got slightly ahead, I wouldn't worry too much about it either. The big advantage of a Welsh-medium education is that it almost invariably produces bilingual children; English-medium education doesn't generally do this.
Hey anon and the rest of you anti-Welsh clods - read the latest issue of New Scientist, more evidence if you need it that bilingualism is helpful in every sphere.
You're flat earthers clinging to your monoglot obsessions, even if it makes you twist facts, fake statistics and lie anonymously on the internet. I checked gogwatch too - nasty whiff of racism runs through it.
I read through Gogwatch and... I laughed so hard.
Are you sure that Gogwatch isn't a parody site?
I live in Germany, but I am pro Welsh - I also speak a minority language.
But honestly, some "arguments" they are putting up are SO ridicolous - they don't even make sense.
Example: "Why should people who speak two languages be prefered over people with only one language in the official sector?"
Maybe.. because peopel with one are thus not really qualified to represent anything? Becasue their education in things of language is superior than yours? Maybe they simply know more than you because they have learnt more than you?
Now that is my question: Do they REALLY think that this kind of brabbeling is an argument?
I mean.. I'm not even sure wetehr I should laugh or cry about that... it's either awfully funny... or just sad.. dunno...
Dymuniadau gorau o'r Almaen
Interesting... Jacques Protic has been circulating this little handout...
http://i1274.photobucket.com/albums/y430/dicpenderyn/225352_10151305596672686_207875378_n_zpsb3c28151.jpg
http://i1274.photobucket.com/albums/y430/dicpenderyn/601988_10151305596817686_1766827867_n_zps322e5f7b.jpg
http://i1274.photobucket.com/albums/y430/dicpenderyn/62185_10151305597087686_1820576426_n_zpsadd3fd26.jpg
What I don't understand is, why would you send your child to a primary school some 20-30 miles away? And why is there a Chester telephone number on there?
But it makes perfect sense, Dic. If you live on Ynys Môn and work in Chester, then it's probably best to drop your kids off at a convenient point half way between the two ;-)
I think this deserves a new post of its own.
Please let me know of any developments.
Gogwatch? Almost certainly the work of a Serb living in North West Wales called Jaques Protic.
Many of you may be unfamiliar with the name, but if you follow Welsh political blogs then you will have read his comments under a host of pseudonyms, ‘Jon Jones’, ‘Mo Patel’, etc. Once one is exposed another emerges. He also comments as Jacques Protic. The giveaway is that they often appear on the same post ‘supporting’ each other. On Twitter, Protic can – or could until recently – be found hiding behind a number of handles including: @gogwatch, @GLASNOSTORGUK, @cymnot, @Plaidodo (also used as an e-mail address), and @momopatel1960. This ‘Mo Patel’ Twitter account has now closed, but I’m told it started off using my gravatar with the eyes scratched out and the mouth taped over! There are almost certainly other identities. Though strangely, for a high-powered, international businessman, I can’t find a Twitter account in his own name.
Protic is also, allegedly, the man behind the now defunct Gogwatch website and it is further suggested that he ran the Glasnost blog. Given his obsessive hatred for the teaching of Welsh (read this), there are many who believe that Protic was also BiLingo. Although not naming Protic this blog establishes the link between BiLingo and Gogwatch. BiLingo caused a great deal of hurt to good people, dedicated teachers, through having its lies repeated by English newspapers.
Not only does Protic sometimes write in his own name, he has even stood for election. In May this year (2013) he offered himself to the electors of the Aethwy ward on Ynys Mon as an Independent candidate . . . he gained 3% of the vote.
Dwi'n myfyriwr PhD ac mae fy ymchwil yn edrych ar yr effaith mae mynychu ysgol gyfrwng Gymraeg yn cael ar ddyheadau ac uchelgeisiau unigolion. Dwi ar hyn o bryd yn edrych ar ystadegau diweddar ar berfformiadau ysgolion cyfrwng Gymraeg a rhai Saesneg, ond yr unig beth allai ddarganfod yw adroddiad o 2001. Lle gafoch chi'r ystadegau yr ydych yn cyfeirio at yn yr erthygl yma? Dwi wedi trio'r linc yn yr erthygl, ond dydi o ddim yn gweithio. Diolch, Siôn
yeezy shoes
ysl
replica rolex
adidas yeezy
asics running shoes
ralph lauren uk
stephen curry 5
fila
yeezy 700
off white clothing
moncler
nmd
louboutin shoes
hermes
fila
lebron james shoes
cheap jordans
converse shoes
nike air max 270
cheap nba jerseys
n4z41t4a13 r0d59n8i65 g4g86c0s02 k8z07m6h19 q1s14f0s81 o2x60m4p22
n4a83q0i43 r5q69u4a35 http://www.dolabuy.ru/hobo-c-157_306_364/replica-saint-laurent-le-5-%C3%A0-7-hobo-657228-bag-in-matte-python-p-3519.html>i2g33b2a93 r4a56c7h49 g9y01d2r39 x0v50n4k56
instagram takipçi satın al
casino siteleri
sms onay
XPX6
elf bar
binance hesap açma
sms onay
PMK81N
betmatik
kralbet
betpark
tipobet
slot siteleri
kibris bahis siteleri
poker siteleri
bonus veren siteler
mobil ödeme bahis
VNH
çekmeköy
kepez
manavgat
milas
balıkesir
DG5
bayrampaşa
güngören
hakkari
izmit
kumluca
XMCN
http://www.rolex-replica.us.com/ clıck me pls bro
iZMİR
burdur
bursa
çanakkale
çankırı
çorum
denizli
diyarbakır
Z0A1
Post a Comment