If this is your first lazy Sunday morning for some while, why not enjoy this STV programme from Friday on the SNP's landslide victory? Labour can and will crumble in Wales too.
Much of what will appear on this blog will also appear in the Syniadau Forums, but the emphasis on this blog is slightly different. The forums are focused more on the structures and institutions that Wales will need to develop in order to become a successful independent nation, arranged on a subject by subject basis, but the blog will have more of an emphasis on day to day political news and developments.
People are welcome to reply or leave comments either here or on the Syniadau Forums. If anyone wants to initiate a new subject they are very welcome to do so there.
10 comments:
Can't see Labour crumble in Wales:
1. Demographics in West - increasing anglicisation of the voters.
2. Cultural/media reach/readership patterns.
Nothing to do with policies or economics.
Not wanting to divert significantly off topic but there are (unsubstantiated) rumours about the health of a certain former UK Prime Minister.
A couple of observations I've made talking to people about Plaid
There is still a big problem regarding the Welsh language and people who are sympathetic towards plaid say they're worried about their 'militant' promotion of the language; this isn't true but it definitely puts off a good proportion of people who think its a Welsh speakers party only.
Another interesting thing a friend said was he couldn't vote for plaid because as he put it there are no candidates with any gravitas and they come across as small town councillors when compared to Rhodri or carwyn.
Caerdydd
'militant' on the language - when?!
'gravitas' and Rhodri Morgan in the same sentence. He looked as if we was tending his allotment rather than a head of state.
On the topic of Caerdydd - I've spoken to many Plaid people who voted for Julie Morgan because of Jonathan Morgan's attitude towards WM education in Melin Gruffydd. So, Plaid lost votes were Labour's gain in that constituency.
It's just anecdotal observations really, people who would vote for a Welsh nationalist party but not Plaid because they think its a Welsh language party only, its not true of course but its a strong perception among those who don't speak Welsh but are generally sympathetic towards devolution etc.
Regarding Rhodri, yes I know, but lets face it Plaid politicians have very little presence at all even when compared to Rhodri Morgan, him and Carwyn are well known now and people in the South especially, still have no idea who IWJ is, despite the years he's been there.
Maybe the way ahead is for Plaid Cymruu not to contest Assembly elections in the future, only fighting Westminster elections as Gwynfor diod so well.
We would then see IWJ standing (and winning) as a Welsh Conservative on Anglesey, Leanne Wood standing (and winning)as a Welsh Labour Candidate, with Dafydd Elis-Thomas a Conservative, Masry Helen a Labour, and so on. It doesn't take much brain power to work out where each Plaid AM and prospective AM would fit. Then, working inside the system, instead of acting as a permanent party of protest, they would be elected to power and implement nationalist politics.
What do you think?
For those who think like "Caerdydd" that the Welsh language holds Plaid back in Cardiff, look at the huge difference between the constituency and list vote in Cardiff West for Plaid.
Something like 20% of the Plaid vote in Cardiff West defected on the list to vote for the Welsh-speaking, Welsh-language supporting, child in Welsh-medium education Green Party candidate.
I understand that the defections from Plaid to Green were particularly heavy in Canton. Wonder why that was?
If Plaid turns it back on the Welsh-language community, Welsh-speakers will take their votes elsewhere.
Like it or not Plaid can never win a majority unless it appeals to English speaking voters in the South who could easily be prised from Labour, it did in 1999 but hasn't done since because it has retreated to the core vote.
They have to widen their vote and could easily do it with a strategy next year to edge out the LDs in the city councils.
anon 00:26,
I'd have to disagree with you. They haven't even retreated to the core votes!.
They seem to want to appeal to "middle Wales"- but unlike England they just don't exist!
Sorry I've taken so long to respond to the comments.
-
Don't forget that Labour have never been strong in the west, 09:14. They actually did worse in North Wales and Mid and West Wales than I expected. I expected them to get 6 seats in NW and 4 in MWW. But what has got to crumble is their stronghold in the three south Wales regions. This is the equivalent of Scotland's central belt. In the same way as Labour's vote crumbled there, it could crumble in the three south Wales regions.
I touched on the influence of media in my previous post. It is essential that we build a more distinctively Welsh media. As it happens, the media coverage of this election was not as bad as I thought it might be. But a month of election coverage will not change the effects of years of a diet of stories that are not about Wales.
-
Caerdydd, I'm not at all worried about promotion of the language. It should not be something Plaid is afraid to do, and shout loudly about doing. In the past, we've not talked about independence for fear of scaring voters away. That was a mistake. But it would be equally foolish not to talk about the language because we think it might scare voters away. The language is hugely important. To me it is more important than anything else, because without it, there would be no Wales ... we would have become a region of England. A fully bilingual Wales—and by that I mean that everyone who grows up in Wales should be competent in both English and Welsh—is more important to the survival of Wales as a nation than anything else.
-
Gwladgarwr, it would have been kinder to have ignored your idea. But as you asked me to comment on it, I'm sorry to have to tell you that it's just about the most idiotic idea I could imagine.
-
22:54's comment was in relation to what Caerdydd said about language, and I agree. But I am interested in the figures. I don't yet have the constituency-by-constituency breakdown for the regional vote (and if anyone can give me a link to them, I'd be grateful) ... but it seems a very odd thing if true. It actually doesn't make any sense in that Neil McEvoy didn't have a hope of winning Cardiff West and any Plaid voter should really have voted Plaid in the regional ballot, as that was the only way we could win a seat. Yet it would show that Plaid and the Greens are seen as being the most ideologically similar of parties ... but that the Greens are edging it in terms of the actual policies. Nuclear power could have been a factor, but there could be others. This might be something to talk more about.
-
I don't disagree with 00:26, unless the "sub-text" is that Plaid should go soft on the Welsh language. It brings us back to the first point: that the Labour vote could crumble. That's what we have to work on.
But as for the "core vote" I'm not sure that the term is all that relevant. If it means "those who'll always vote Plaid, come hell or high water" then 00:26 is making a fair point. But what 13:14 seems to be saying is that there is an "untouched core" of people who want what is best for Wales that Plaid could and should be appealing to.
The extent of this core is probably the difference between the 65% who turn out to vote in Westminster elections and the 42% who turn out to vote in Assembly elections. These half million people obviously think that no one is putting forward policies that are particularly relevant to Wales. If Plaid can connect with that "untouched core", we can win the next election as convincingly as the SNP won in Scotland.
Post a Comment