The St David's Day Poll

The BBC never did explain their decision not to publish the results of the annual poll it commissions from ICM until after the referendum had taken place, and although it was mentioned in this article, the answers to the non-referendum questions did tend to get lost in the excitement of the referendum itself ... which is quite understandable. So I thought now would be an appropriate time to look at them. The results can be downloaded from here:

     ICM Poll for BBC Cymru Wales, March 2011

These are the responses to the three usual questions, compared with the responses in 2008, 2009 and 2010.

	Which one of these levels of government do you think presently has MOST influence over Wales?
		2008	2009	2010	2011
	The European Union	8%	8%	6%	11%
	The UK Government	35%	29%	40%	47%
	The Welsh Government	40%	40%	36%	24%
	Local Authorities	10%	15%	7%	6%
	Which level of government do you think SHOULD have most influence over Wales?
		2008	2009	2010	2011
	The European Union	2%	2%	1%	1%
	The UK Government	22%	21%	24%	27%
	The Welsh Government	61%	61%	62%	58%
	Local Authorities	11%	14%	7%	7%
	Which one of these statements comes closest to your view?
	Wales should be / have ...
		2008	2009	2010	2011
	Independent, outside EU	5%	5%	4%	4%
	Independent, inside EU	8%	8%	7%	7%
	Assembly with full law and (some) tax powers	37%	34%	40%	35%
	Assembly with full law and no tax powers	n/a	10%	13%	18%
	Assembly with limited law powers only	26%	21%	18%	17%
	No Assembly	20%	19%	13%	15%

The trend of answers to the first question is very interesting. It shows that people now think the Welsh government has less influence than they thought it had before, with Westminster having correspondingly more influence.

To my mind the explanation for this is that Labour were until recently in power in both Cardiff Bay and Westminster, and it was therefore very difficult for people to distinguish between what Labour's MPs and AMs were doing. This was not helped by Labour's claims about the economic benefits that devolution would bring, particularly in increasing Wales' GVA per head relative to the UK as a whole. It led people to think that the Welsh government was more responsible for the economic performance of Wales than was in fact the case. But in fact nearly all the levers that effect our economy were and still are very firmly in the hands of the UK government at Westminster.

At a time when very large sums of public money were being spent, it is understandable that people thought the money that was allocated to things like new schools and hospitals was because of the Welsh government at Cardiff Bay. But Wales was only responsible for allocating how the money it was given by Westminster was spent, not how much it was being given. Now that the effects of the financial crisis are beginning to be felt, is it hardly surprising that people in Wales are beginning to realize that the decisions made by Westminster have a lot more importance than they previously thought. And of course the fact that the UK government making those decisions is now a coalition of the two parties that are not in government in Wales makes the distinction much more apparent than it was before.

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But even so, it is remarkable and encouraging that the people of Wales still think that our own government in Cardiff Bay should have most influence over Wales, as opposed to Westminster (with the other two options attracting negligible support). Yes, the margin has gone down a little, but is comfortably more than two-to-one. This shows that there is still plenty of appetite in Wales for more areas of responsibility to be devolved from Westminster to the Senedd. Two very obvious things are police and the justice system, which is supported by 57% with 29% against according to the rmg:Clarity poll produced last week for the Western Mail. Additionally, the poll I mentioned in this post found that 59% thought that decisions about welfare and benefits should be devolved to the Assembly, with only 23% thinking these decisions should continue to be made at Westminster.

We would be very unwise to ignore this, particularly because of the news today that massive cuts are going to be made in policing which will make the case for amalgamating smaller forces all the more urgent. Now would seem to be the perfect time to look at either an all-Wales police force, or some way of combining the administrative and technical functions of the four Welsh forces to make better use of money and resources. On top of this, the ConDem coalition is seeking to replace police authorities with elected commissioners against the wishes of the majority in Wales ... and are having great difficulty in finding a way of holding these commissioners accountable in Wales. One obvious solution is to devolve policing to Wales and let us decide how to make the police democratically accountable.

However it would be wrong to ignore that fact that the percentage in favour of the Welsh government having most influence over Wales has gone down, even if only slightly. I think the reason for this is an increased sense of dissatisfaction with the way Welsh governments have dealt with some crucial areas which are devolved to Wales. As we all know, some aspects of our education system are deteriorating ( ... although not all, because the Foundation Phase and Welsh Baccalaureate are likely to be great improvements). So are some aspects of our National Health Service. Wales has only ever known devolved government in which all or part of the policy agenda has been set by the Labour party, so it is inevitable that people should be asking whether the way some things are done in England is better than the way we have chosen to do them here. But the answer to that is for us not to blindly elect yet another Assembly in which Labour are the biggest party in May.

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Finally, we turn to the question about which governance model is right for Wales. In some ways this question is now out of date, since we have just given our approval to the Assembly getting primary lawmaking powers in the areas devolved to it. But the trend shown over the past few years is still very informative, with fewer of us wanting to abolish the Assembly and fewer of us wanting an Assembly with only limited lawmaking powers. Now that we are going to have primary lawmaking powers, I'd expect there to be a shift in expectations in next year's poll. Most people who want Wales to move forward will prefer to take one step at a time, rather than two.

So the next big question for us is whether the Assembly should have tax setting powers, especially because this always has been and still remains by far the most popular model. Yet in just the same way as Labour did all they could to avoid moving to an Assembly with lawmaking powers, by setting the requirement for what most people now see as an unnecessary referendum; they seem just as reluctant to stop us moving to an Assembly with tax setting powers. It seems clear from what people like Rhodri Morgan and Carwyn Jones have said recently that Labour want to shy away from the responsibility of the Welsh Government being responsible for raising even a modest part of the £15bn it spends each year; and in my opinion, this is why they are so keen to insist on placing yet another obstacle in the way in the form of yet another referendum.

Now I agree with Carwyn Jones that our first priority should be to get a fair funding formula for Wales as a replacement for the Barnett formula. If he had shown any degree of foresight, he would have made sure that the Labour Government in Westminster replaced it when they were in power. Instead, Labour ridiculed us for making the missing £300m a central plank of Plaid Cymru's manifesto in 2010 ... only to have undergone a dramatic conversion now that Labour aren't in power. Leadership requires greater foresight than he or Rhodri Morgan before him have shown.

The Tories, now they are in charge at the Treasury, are doing exactly what Labour did when they were in charge. They are telling us that they think Wales is fairly funded, and that we have nothing to complain about. So we would be fools to expect any major change to the way the block grant is calculated. Instead, we would be wise to look at what is happening in Scotland, where the basic recommendation of the Calman Commission was to reduce the block grant, but make Scotland responsible for raising whatever it thinks it needs to make up for it by setting its own rate of income tax, together with responsibility for a few minor taxes.

With a few modifications (improvements, in my opinion) the Holtham Commission has recommended that the Welsh block grant should be similarly reduced and that the Welsh government should set a level of income tax to make up for it. It may not be perfect, but it is a practical and workable step in the right direction, because it is irresponsible for any government to simply spend money without accepting any responsibility for how that money is raised. It is clear to me that Westminster (whether the Tories or Labour are in power) is not going to reform the Barnett Formula without at the same time addressing how each of the devolved administrations in the UK can become responsible for raising at least some of the money they spend. And should Labour in Wales try to backtrack on this issue, it is worth reminding people that they were one of the parties that set up the Calman and Holtham Commissions. Why spend all that money on them only in order to ignore what they recommend?

There is no great issue of principle at stake that would require a referendum on tax setting powers. Every local council can set the rate of taxes or levy a precept. The Assembly already has responsibility for setting the multiplier that determines non-domestic rates for businesses. So tax setting powers for the National Assembly is an already overdue step, and something the people of Wales have the right to expect to see implemented.