The Referendum Timetable

Following recent statements by both Carwyn Jones and John Griffiths there is now every indication that Labour have decided to go for an Autumn 2010 referendum to give primary lawmaking powers to the Assembly.

Betsan Powys, in this post yesterday, set out just how tight the timetable would be in view of the issues that the Referendum Order (i.e. the process of bringing about a referendum, which is very similar to the LCO process) needs to address. These are:

• the wording of the question
• the approval of the wording by the Electoral Commission
• the amount to be awarded to each side for campaigning
• the date of the referendum
• the polling and counting arrangements

In my opinion none of these is an insuperable problem. It is possible ... just ... to get the Referendum Order through the Assembly and Westminster on the last working day before the long Easter recess, namely 26 March. It cannot be taken beyond that point because of the General Election which we now know, thanks to Andrew Marr's questioning, is almost certain to be held on 6 May ... and the minimum period for holding it is about three weeks.

The only other option is to delay the process, and ask the new Secretary of State to lay the Referendum Order before the Westminster Parliament after the general election. As I have said before, I don't think we have any guarantee from the Conservatives of any commitment to get the Referendum Order through Westminster. David Cameron's statement was merely that a future Tory government would "not stand in the way" of such a request. Crucially, he said that MPs would be given a free vote on the issue. With a majority of Tory MPs, none of them with much appetite for or interest in specifically Welsh affairs, there is every possibility that the Referendum Order would not get passed by a new House of Commons ... and Cameron will then be able to say, "We didn't say we'd support it, only that we wouldn't stand in the way."

There is also every possibility that the Tories will introduce additional conditions, as happened in the 1979 referendum when a 40% threshold was retrospectively introduced ... although, it should be noted, not by a Tory government on that occasion.

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So the stakes are high. If Labour want to ensure that we get this referendum done and dusted, without any opportunity of it being tampered with or delayed (because of course it will be in the interests of a future Tory Government to delay any new areas of legislation from a left-of-centre One Wales government for as long as possible) then the only answer is to get the Referendum Order finalized while Labour still have a majority in Westminster to enable them to do it.

     

Let's look at the issues that need to be dealt with one by one:
 

The wording of the question

The question itself is not difficult. The GoWA 2006 doesn't give us any options about which areas the Assembly will get primary lawmaking powers in, nor does it give us the opportunity for additional options such as abolition of the Assembly. The choice is simply between the status quo and primary lawmaking powers in the areas listed in Schedule 7 of the Act.

The question should be straightforward, precise and neutral ... and I would only repeat the suggestion I made earlier for the reasons I set out here:

Do you agree with the following proposition?

The National Assembly for Wales should have primary law-making powers in the areas devolved to it, as listed in Schedule 7 of the Government of Wales Act 2006

YES, I agree
NO, I do not agree

A ydych yn cytuno â'r cynnig canlynol?

Dylai fod gan Gynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru pwerau deddfu cynradd yn y meysydd sy'n cael eu datganoli iddo, fel a restrir yn Atodlen 7 o Ddeddf Llywodraeth Cymru 2006

YDW, dw i yn cytuno
NAC YDW, dw i ddim yn cytuno

I'm not "precious" about the wording, and I'm happy for others to improve on it. In essence all that matters right now is that we get a form of words agreed to be put into the Draft Referendum Order. The question can be always be modified as the Order progresses, in just the same way as happens with LCOs.
 

The approval of the wording by the Electoral Commission

The Electoral Commission has a statutory duty to give their opinion on the precise wording of any referendum question. To be technical, their opinion can be over-ruled by the government, but it is highly unlikely that any government would want to do that, since it would be perceived as being partisan.

The problem is that the EC need to "road test" the question in the form of focus groups, etc. which will take time to do properly and professionally. This is what they say about it:

We should be able to publish our views on the intelligibility of a proposed referendum question around 10 weeks after finding out what the question is. This includes eight weeks to carry out public opinion research, based on getting at least two weeks' notice of the date when we will be given the exact wording of the question.

We will do as much advance preparation as we can for the research—which is the part of our evidence-gathering that will take the longest—so that we can make sure it is completed as quickly as possible.

Source

As it so happens, the likely day on which the Assembly will pass the request for the Referendum Order will be 26 January. So it is just ... but only just ... possible for the EC to have approved the question before the Referendum Order is approved at the end of March. But crucially it means putting the EC "on notice" by next week at the latest. So what is required is a statement to the effect that the matter will be debated and voted on in the Senedd on 26 January. This statement needs to be made before the end of next week.

I'm sure there must be people who are well aware of the EC's timescale. But it would do no harm for people with more influence than I have to make sure that the EC are fully informed about what is going to hit them at the end of January. The timescale is so tight that every day will count.
 

The amount to be awarded to each side for campaigning

As I see it, there shouldn't be a problem with the level of funding. The North East Regional Assembly referendum in 2004 provides a good precedent of £100,000 per side for a roughly similar population (2.5m as opposed to our 3m). It could now be £120,000 or £150,000 each, given that a few years have passed since then.

In general terms, a higher amount is likely to favour the No campaign, since they have a smaller support base. The Yes campaign will be supported by Labour, the LibDems and Plaid. The Tories might or might not remain officially neutral. If it were up to me, I'd opt for the higher figure of £150,000 to avoid any argument.

There will of course be the usual free mailshot, a few election broadcasts and the use of public buildings for meetings. Nothing out of the ordinary.
 

The date of the referendum

I think the date of the poll should be 28 October, i.e. just before the clocks go back on 31 October. Perhaps a week or two earlier, but certainly not later, because dark evenings will have a negative effect on turnout. The summer holidays and party conferences will be over, but it won't be too cold for canvassing. By then, the Westminster election will have taken place and the dust will have settled, and there will still be plenty of time after the referendum to formulate policies and fight the campaign for the May 2011 Assembly election.

The AWC recommended a ten week campaign, which seems fine to me ... although I think that political discussion is bound to be rife long before that. But there does need to be an official "referendum period" during which specific rules about things such as publication of materials and finance apply.
 

The polling and counting arrangements

These don't need to be any different from any other election. The same polling stations and same counting arrangements as were used for the Euro elections last year.

The only possible alternative would be an all postal ballot. This was meant to increase turnout when used in the North East Regional Assembly referendum, but it only delivered a turnout of 47.8%. Postal ballots have also been dogged by problems and allegation of problems, and I don't think we should do anything to encourage controversy. Though obviously people who want to can still vote by post or proxy, as in other elections.

     

So it's really quite simple and straightforward. What we need now is the statement of intent from the Wyn Jones's (Car and Ieuan) next week, and for the debate to be put into the Assembly's timetable ... in all probability for 26 January.

It will need to be passed by a two-thirds majority in the Senedd, but there won't be a problem getting it through because Labour, the LibDems and Plaid will definitely vote Yes ... however the Tories might surprise us and make it unanimous. It would be a nice touch, and would certainly do their poll chances in Wales more good than harm.

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It will then pass to Peter Hain to lay the Draft Referendum Order before Parliament, which he would do within a day or two of receiving it. Technically he could sit on it for 120 days, but he simply won't do that because Labour will already have made the decision in internal meetings over this Christmas/New Year break to get it through Westminster while they still have the chance to do so.

It will have to go before the Welsh Affairs Select Committee and probably the Lords Constitutional Committee, but there is nothing contentious about any of what it will contain, not least because the Electoral Commission will doing its own work in a separate, parallel process and because the list of subjects for which the Assembly will get primary lawmaking powers was hammered out when the GoWA 2006 was passed.