YouGov ... a step after it unfolds

Today is a big day for Welsh politics, so I'm blogging at what, for me, is an unearthly hour.

8:40 am

Plaid's overall "if there were a General Election tomorrow" level is 15%. In 2005 it was 12.55% ... so that's a nice increase.

But in that, the North Wales figure is now 24%, and was 14.23%. That's a huge increase. That should mean Ynys Môn will come to us comfortably, and makes Aberconwy look likely too.

South Wales West is another huge increase. It is now 18%, and was 9.56%. This has always been such rock-solid Labour territory that the increase may not win us any seats. But our strongest constituency is Neath, which is an Assembly target. We might give Peter Hain a well-deserved scare, but taking it at Westminster is a big ask.

9:10 am

Very interesting Assembly figures. Labour remain exactly where they were. The huge fall for them is at Westminster, but it's not reflected in the Senedd.

Plaid are up a little. In 2007 it was 22.57% constituency, 21.02% regional. Now 24% constituency, and still 21% regional.

9:15 am

On the referendum, not what I expected at all. 42% Yes, 37% No ... a margin of only 5%.

11:10 am

On reflexion, the most interesting thing to come out of the poll is the difference between Westminster and Cardiff voting intentions. Labour are set to fall from 43% to 34% at Westminster, but stay the same in Cardiff Bay.

Obviously people believe that Labour are doing a bad job at Westminster, but sadly the only alternative—other than a hung Parliament—is the Tories. But things are different when it comes to governing Wales: that Labour/Plaid is the preferred option. Perhaps some of the difference is that most of us (52%) believe that our AMs are basically honest and haven't been deceitful over expenses and the like. Only 19% think that of our MPs. Therefore there isn't the same pressure to want to change things, including the government.

It's a bit galling that Labour should not have suffered more in Assembly intentions. The big differences between Labour's policies in Cardiff and London, like dismantling the internal market in the NHS, were driven more by Plaid than Labour ... but Labour AMs share the credit for it. Drat! But that's the nature of coalition government: we have to be nice to our partners for now, but we will return to normal hostilities in the months before the Assembly elections. That means opinions will change very rapidly from about the beginning of 2011 ... or more quickly if Labour don't back the referendum after the AWC reports next month.

On the subject of the referendum, I'm disappointed that the margin is only 5%. There seems to be a big increase in the numbers of don't knows compared with polls earlier this year. Yet on the other hand, 63% agree that we should have the same powers as the Scottish Parliament - yet we will still have considerably fewer powers even after the referendum. Odd.

But anyway, I believe that we must have the referendum on principle, and am not at all afraid of a tight fight. Even so, I don't believe the fight will be tight. Labour will realize that it's in their own interests to back a Yes vote, because the Tories in Westminster will do everything they can to prevent legislation being passed in Cardiff that they don't like. When they come round, most of their supporters will come round too. Labour are always going to be more comfortable fighting any campaign (referendum or election) on an "it's either us or the Tories" basis ... and if that's what resonates with their supporters, so be it.

-

Finally, still no sign of the full figures on the YouGov site. Two polls from yesterday have been published, so I'd expect this to be up by tomorrow at the latest. If anyone has another link, please post it.